Does explicit forecast uncertainty improve understanding while preserving qualified download conversion?
- Audience
- Eligible US English iPhone default-page visitors; separately recruit flexible-date travellers and fixed-itinerary travellers for research.
- Control
- The existing third-frame support copy only if a claims review confirms it is accurate; correct any unsupported claim across variants first and establish a fresh baseline.
- Treatment
- Change only the third-frame supporting line to verified estimate-and-watch wording. Keep the conditional UI, sequence, images and metadata fixed.
- Method
- Validate the current forecast scope and run comprehension research, followed by eligible App Store product page optimization. Do not label this a forecast-accuracy experiment.
- Primary measure
- Platform-reported download conversion for eligible randomized traffic.
- Guardrails
- Participants should distinguish a forecast from a confirmed quote or guaranteed saving and understand whether it covers their intended itinerary. Booking savings require separate evidence.
- Decision rule
- Set a useful effect, sample requirement and analysis timing before launch from real baseline data. Keep control if inconclusive; reject wording that improves conversion through mistaken certainty.
- What could muddy the result
- Fare volatility, disruptions, promotional discounts, seasonality and changing itinerary mix can affect results.